If statistics are anything to go by, then the Germans will lift the European trophy in France this summer.
In what sounds like a giant game of Championship Manager, academics from Salford University crunched the numbers using a vast database of 3,000 player statistics to rank the likely outcome of matches.
“We have detailed numbers on all those players and what they do while on the pitch: the timing and location of every tackle, every pass, every shot,” explained Ian McHale, Professor of Sports Analytics.
Each match was simulated up to 10,000 times using the university’s Sport Analytics Machine algorithm to predict the most likely winner
Bastian Schweinsteiger’s Germany are most likely to come out on top but England have just a seven per cent chance of winning the tournament, according to Ian’s stats.
Ireland sit on two per cent and Wales on a hopeful one per cent.
Near neighbours Northern Ireland may be gutted but not surprised to find they have a 0% chance.
England’s full squad, which is here, includes local lad Marcus Rashford after a stunning third-minute goal against Australia put him top of Roy Hodgson’s list.
The Three Lions have a 54% chance of reaching the quarter finals or better, says Professor McHale.
Professor McHale added: “Our data takes into account all kind of factors, including the fact the tournament is being played in France. There are no real surprises, except perhaps Italy being only tenth favourites and Croatia having a sneakily good team.
“Portugal having more chance than England shows the impact that one truly world-class player can have. If he finally delivers for Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo could win them the tournament.”
